1900 to Now: How Global Power Shifts Reshaped the World

Global Power Shifts: 1900 to the Present

To understand the decline of the Western Empire we need to look from 1900 to Now and understand how history has reshaped the world and enabled shifts in global power.

We will look at a detailed timeline and cast of characters, that will cover information about the innovations, geopolitical shifts, warfare, and social changes of the 1900s.

This look back at the past to present day will enable a view of what this may mean for the future.

Timeline of Main Events (1900 – Present)

Early 1900s: The Industrial and Imperial Peak

Technological Advancements:

• A rapid pace of industrialisation.
• Innovations include the mass production of automobiles, advancements in electricity, and the development of new chemical processes.
• These innovations lead to increased productivity and the growth of large-scale industries.

The British Empire’s Zenith:

• The British Empire, fueled by industrial might, reaches its largest territorial extent.
• It exerts significant influence across the globe, controlling vast resources and trade routes.
• However, this period is also marked by rising nationalism and calls for self-determination within its colonies.

Early 1900s: The Rise of Nations

Rise of Germany:

• Germany emerges as a major industrial and military power.
• This challenges the established order in Europe.
• This is partly due to its investment in new technologies, and its desire for a larger colonial empire.

Naval Arms Race:

• A naval arms race develops, primarily between Britain and Germany.
• This is driven by the desire to secure trade routes and exert global influence
• This fuels a growing sense of unease and tension between the two nations.

Entente Cordiale (c. 1906):

• The alliance between Britain and France is formed to counter the growing power of Germany, marking a significant geopolitical shift.

Pro-German Sentiment:

• There is some pro-German sentiment within the British government at this time.
• British politicians and businessmen who are blind to the threat posed by Germany and instead seek commercial advantage.
• This highlights a level of internal division and a failure to grasp the changing geopolitical landscape.

Growing Social Unrest:

• Rapid industrialisation leads to major social changes.
• This includes the growth of urban populations, increased class tensions, and the rise of socialist and labour movements.

1914-1918: World War I – The Great War

Industrialised Warfare:

• World War I marks a shift to industrialised warfare.
• Using new technologies like machine guns, tanks, chemical weapons, and aeroplanes.
• This results in unprecedented levels of destruction and casualties.
• This highlights the dark side of technological advancement.

Commodity Price Spike:

• The war is partly driven by a commodity price spike.
• There is also a fight for resources.
• This illustrates the link between economic factors and geopolitical conflict.

Geopolitical Upheaval:

• The war results in the collapse of several European empires.
• This includes the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian empires.
• This starts to reshape of the political map of Europe.

1920s: The Interwar Period

The Russian Revolution:

• The Russian Revolution results in the creation of the Soviet Union, the first communist state.
• This has a profound effect on global politics, spreading communist ideology and fuelling the Cold War.

Soviet Consolidation:

• The Soviet Union consolidates power.
• While faceing internal threats, it simultaneously builds a formidable military.
• This highlights the internal struggles of a new ideological power.

Rise of Fascism:

• Fascism rises in Italy and later in Germany.
• This is driven by a backlash against the perceived failures of democracy and the economic hardships of the post-war period.

Economic Instability:

• The global economy is unstable in the 1920s.
• Hyperinflation in Germany and the Wall Street Crash in 1929.
• This instability fuels political extremism and provides the context for further conflict.

1930s: The Path to War

Global Depression:

• The Great Depression creates widespread economic hardship.
• This causes social unrest across the world, undermining faith in capitalism.

Rise of Extremism:

• Europe experiences political and economic instability, with the rise of fascism in Germany and Spain.
• Totalitarian regimes gaining power by exploiting social grievances.

The Spanish Civil War (1936-1939):

• This serves as a ‘pilot war’, revealing the weakness of Britain and France by their failure to oppose German intervention.
• This shows failure of liberal democracies to effectively oppose fascism [3].

German Aggression: Germany reoccupies the Rhineland in 1936:

• This move, unchallenged by Britain and France, further signalling weakness in the face of growing aggression.

Appeasement:

• Britain and France adopt a policy of appeasement towards Germany.
• This fails to prevent war and is viewed as a sign of weakness by aggressors.

1939-1945: World War II

Global Conflict:

• World War II becomes a truly global conflict, involving all major powers and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions.
• The conflict leads to the emergence of the US and the Soviet Union as the world’s two superpowers, shaping the post-war world.

US as Creditor:

• The US emerges from the war as a major creditor with its industrial base intact, producing eight times more than in 1941.
• This establishes the US as the new dominant economic force.

British Bankruptcy:

• Britain becomes bankrupt due to war debts to the US.
• Marks the decline of the British Empire.

Innovation in Warfare:

• The war sees rapid advancements in military technology, including radar, jet aircraft, and the atomic bomb.

1944: The Bretton Woods System

Dollar Dominance: The Bretton Woods System is established, with the US dollar as the dominant international currency and fixed exchange rates. This establishes a period of US economic and political hegemony [4].

Post-WWII: The Cold War

Marshall Plan:

• The US implements the Marshall Plan (not directly covered in the sources, but related), rebuilding Europe whilst maintaining the dollar’s dominance.
• This is done to create a sphere of influence and limit Soviet expansion.

The Bipolar World:

• The world becomes divided into two ideological blocs, led by the US and the Soviet Union, which leads to an extended period of intense geopolitical tension.

Nuclear Arms Race:

• The Cold War includes a nuclear arms race, with the constant threat of nuclear annihilation.
• This leads to the development of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine, influencing military strategy.

Proxy Wars:

• The US and the Soviet Union engage in numerous proxy wars, such as in Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan.
• These reflect the global reach of their ideological struggle.

Japanese Economic Growth:

• Japan experiences a period of high economic growth in the post war period, fuelled by US investment and a focus on manufacturing for export.
• This transforms it into a major economic power.

1960s and 1970s: Shifting Tides

US Trade Deficit:

• The US trade surplus begins to decline, signalling a shift in economic power [8].

End of Bretton Woods:

• President Nixon ends the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
• US begins to operate at a trade deficit but maintains the dollar’s dominance in international payments.

Soviet Economic Strain:

• The Soviet Union experiences significant financial strain due to military spending and the war in Afghanistan.
• Highlights the cost of imperial overreach.

1975 Commodity Peak:

• A commodity cycle peak occurs in 1975, pitting the consumer-driven West against the commodity-producing Soviet Union.
• This further influences the dynamics of the Cold War.

British Decline– Late 1970s:

• Britain reaches the trough of its decline, facing economic problems.
• This brings a loss of global influence.

1980s: The End of the Cold War

Thatcherism:

• Under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher, Britain begins its recovery from the overextension phase of its empire cycle.

Plaza Accords:

• The Plaza Accords are established in 1985 to devalue the US dollar, resulting in the stagnation of the Japanese economy.

Soviet Collapse:

• The Collapse of the Soviet Union occurs between 1989 and 1991, partly due to economic overstretch and the failure of its system to meet the needs of its citizens.

Unipolar Moment:

• The end of the Cold War leads to a unipolar world order where the US is seen as untouchable.

1990s – 2010s: The Rise of China and a Multipolar World

China’s Rise:

• China begins its expansionary phase, utilising the US unipolar world to advance its interests.
• This is part of a deliberate, long-term plan to challenge the West.

US Interventions:

• The US, as the sole superpower, engages in interventions that contribute to disillusionment and a loss of credibility.

Increased US Debt:

• The US increases its debt and spending on military and social programmes.
• While this happens its manufacturing base declines.

2008 Financial Crisis:

• The global financial crisis in 2008 leads to an era of quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates by central banks, causing increased debt levels.

Brexit Vote:

• In the 2010s the UK undergoes a period of ‘civil war’ represented by the Brexit vote, required to enter its second phase of Empire expansion.

DiEM25 founding:

• DiEM25 is founded in Berlin in 2015, predicting that the EU has 10 years to democratise or it will disintegrate [23].

Trump Presidency:

• The presidency of Donald Trump from 2017-2021 increases awareness of the China threat but fails to implement concrete measures to counter it.
• Trump’s isolationism weakens US alliances and relationships.

2020 – Present: Instability and Shifting Power

COVID-19 Pandemic:

• The COVID-19 pandemic leads to further increases in global debt and economic instability.

Digital Yuan:

• The rise of China’s digital payments systems, like WeChat and the Digital Yuan, is perceived as a mortal threat to the US dollar.

US-China Tensions:

• The Biden administration continues Trump’s ‘Cold War’ against China and imposes bans on microchip exports.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine:

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 leads to the confiscation of Russian assets, causing countries to lose confidence in the dollar system and seek alternatives.

AUKUS Pact:

• The AUKUS pact and submarine deal is agreed between the UK, the US, and Australia, with significant implications for the Indo-Pacific and China [26, 28].

European Crisis:

• The EU struggles with economic stagnation, lack of innovation, and political instability.
• Europe is in danger of being surpassed by the US and China.

UK Rejuvenation:

• The UK and other European countries are viewed as having a unique position to hold the baton of Western democracy as America declines.

European Decline:

• Europe enters a long secular slump, failing to democratise, as predicted by DiEM25 in 2024.

Into 2025

Global Conflict Risk:

• Predictions of a med-high risk of global conflict (World War III) between 2024 and 2027.
• Possibly triggered by a spike in commodity prices as China and the US clash.

BRICS Currency:

• A key decision point for China is whether to establish the yuan as a central reserve currency in a new BRICS dominated Bretton Woods system from 2025 onwards.

Commodity Peak:

• 2025 represents the next predicted commodity cycle peak.

Other Reading

References

• https://youtu.be/joP-uZL3MJI?list=TLGG92LXStdf054wNzAxMjAyNQ
• https://youtu.be/qaIKeXnX1UM
• https://youtu.be/LOO41jlHRb8
• https://youtu.be/EgUE0mA0Fis?list=TLGGN06y795M6NEwNzAxMjAyNQ
• https://youtu.be/dmlJ9oy62F0?list=TLGG50L62lJmpUEwNzAxMjAyNQ
• https://youtu.be/TLm6dC34gYk

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